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Moscow denied any military progress by Ukrainian troops during the start of the counterattack last week, saying many of Kyivs soldiers were killed and wounded. "The time has come to take back what is ours," General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander in chief of Ukraine's armed forces, wrote in a Saturday morning Telegram post. It's Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose. Ukrainian victory is not an assured possibility. A landlocked country is offering flags of convenience at sea. Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russias war in Ukraine. And on Aug. 29, Ukraine launched a long-anticipated counteroffensive in the south that aims to liberate the occupiedand strategically vitalKherson region, followed by a quick, strikingly successful offensive in Kharkiv. Kyiv was slow to claim responsibility, perhaps trying to disguise what weapon it used for the attacks - which seemed to go beyond its known capabilities - or perhaps fearing escalation by Putin. We feel the lack of our air forces. But in any scenario, Russia would be weakened militarily, economically, and politically. Zaluzhnyi has studied closely his current opponent, Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who was tapped to lead Moscow's campaign in January after previously serving as the longtime chief of the general staff of the country's armed forces. Victory will be when the last Russian solider walks across that long bridge,' predicts General Hodges - speaking about the bridge Putin ordered built across the Kerch Strait, connecting Crimea with the Russian mainland. This is due in part to the war in Ukraine, which has cut off Moldovan agriculture from the Russian and Belarusian markets. ", The scale of Ukraine's victory in Kharkiv Oblast "stunned the entire world, but perhaps nobody was as surprised as the Russians themselves," former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk wrote for the Atlantic Council. And on the six-month anniversary of the invasion on Aug. 24, a date that coincided with Ukraines Independence Day, Zelensky spoke even more forcefully about victoryand spelling out exactly what that would mean. Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera. In early April, after these initial failures in a war that Russia thought it could and was expected to win in days, Putin appointed Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov to be Moscow's first overall theater commander and reportedly instructed him to seize the Donbas region by the beginning of May and establish one uniform command for Moscow's operations in Ukraine. A grim new phase could be coming Analysis by Nathan Hodge, CNN Updated 11:32 PM EDT, Tue March 22, 2022 Link Copied! But a surprise Ukrainian counter-attack, launched after Russia had relocated some of its best units to the south to help defend Kherson, changed everything. But recently, pro-Russian parties have been resurgent. Ben Hodges, former commander of American forces in Europe, has outlined what he believes to be the Ukrainian route to victory - going via the cities of Kherson and Mariupol and ending 'when the last Russian soldier crosses the [Kerch] bridge out of Crimea.'. From CNN's Katya Krebs and Matthew Chance in Kyiv, Ukraine. Donbas is Ukraine. ", For Ukraine's Western allies, specifically, Zagorodnyuk underscores, the Kharkiv offensive "proved beyond doubt that Ukraine is capable of staging large-scale offensive operations and reclaiming land that Russia has held for extended periods.". This blow to Ukraine was the start of the "attrition" stage of the Battle of Donbas, Ponomarenko writes in The Kyiv Independent. There is less to Beijings security gains in the Pacific than meets the eye. NEW FOR SUBSCRIBERS: The effects of a Russian defeat in Ukraine would also be felt in Moldova. These have included a series of strikes against an airstrip and munitions depots that Ukrainian authorities say were orchestrated by elite military units operating behind enemy lines. But they held on from late February through mid-May, when the final Ukrainian surviving forces surrendered at the sprawling Azovstal steel plant. In less than a week, Ukraines military made startling gains against Russian forces in the Kharkiv region, potentially changing the tide of a war that has raged for more than half a year and changed the geopolitical fabric of Europe. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. But what comes next . The signs are mixed. U kraine, with some western help, has won a great victory, and the original aim of Russia's invasion - to capture Kyiv and replace the Ukrainian government - has been utterly defeated. Ukrainian Telegram channels reported explosions at the Antonivsky bridge near the city of Kherson, occupied by Russian forces. ", Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak has said the counteroffensive would not be "a single event that will begin at a specific hour of a specific day.". "And at this point, the invasion's outcome is far from clear.". Russian authorities said the situation was calm around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine after UN inspectors said it had again lost external power. After Russia pulled out of Kherson in November, the battle lines and battlefields effectively froze for the winter. 'My sense is that the operations that are underway now - the northern arm that is coming down from Kharkiv towards Donetsk, [and' that's heading straight towards Mariupol,' he told the CEPA conference. In depth Ukraine's biggest victories and defeats in the war against Russia Six key battles that have shaped the trajectory of the conflict Peter Weber February 24, 2023 A year into. It would free up the forces near Kharkiv to focus on attacking Luhansk and Donetsk, liberating the Donbas from Russian control. 2023 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Satellite Information Network, LLC. Much remains unknown about Ukraine's reserves. That created vulnerabilities that they were able to exploit.. Fog of war: Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russian forces Youre on the list! Ukraine updates: Officials signal counteroffensive against Russia The Week is part of Future plc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. But in contrast to Russia, its forces are highly motivated and equipped by the West with state-of-the-art military hardware like the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. Delivered Monday-Saturday. Ukrainian troops raised Ukrainian flag on the. The Russian strike killed two people and wounded 30 others, including two children, Ukrainian officials said. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu has been in office since December 2020, and her Party of Action and Solidarity holds a large parliamentary majority. Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. China Has Been Waging a Decades-Long, All-Out Spy War, A BRICS Currency Could Shake the Dollars Dominance, Americas Evacuation Efforts in Sudan Stall Out, Stop Worrying About Chinese Hegemony in Asia. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed, 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade atHostomel, 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade in Kharkiv, destroying what amounted to an entire Russian battalion tactical group, Andriy Zagorodnyuk wrote for the Atlantic Council. "These are dozens of different actions to destroy the Russian occupation forces in different directions, which have already been taking place yesterday, are taking place today and will continue tomorrow," Podolyak said Thursday. Just as Dvornikov's appointment is a bit of a mystery, the reasons Putin appointed Zhidko are unclear, but it's possible the relationship these men had with Gerasimov, who was still chief of the general staff at the time, played a role. ", Ukraine derailed Russia's Kyiv blitzkrieg, but Russia had more immediate success in the south. But, in a speech on August 10, Zelensky vowed: 'Crimea is Ukrainian and we will never give it up. From this perspective, I would say any sort of counteroffensive [to retake Kherson city] would be possible after receiving all of these armaments. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal in conversation with Wang for a discussion about Chinas technological rise and whether U.S. actions can really stop it. Usernames may be updated at any time and must not contain inappropriate or offensive language. Ukraine claims significant gains in counter-offensive against Russia. In what ways are they reassessing their relationships with the worlds largest economic superpowers? Why Russia Hasn't Defeated Ukraine A quick victory has eluded President Vladimir V. Putin, but now he is changing strategy. Mariupol's defenders, outnumbered and isolated, made some mistakes, like dividing defense of the city between naval, ground, and territorial defense forces, RUSI assesses. Ukrainian units are locked in a desperate struggle with Russian infantry and armour intent on . "As the news of the losses at the river crossing in Bilohorivka started to spread," Russian military bloggers who had reliably posted "claims of Russian success and Ukrainian cowardice" turned their fire on Russia's military leadership, sowing doubts back home about Russia's prospects in Ukraine. Military victories in Kharkiv region come as Moscow focuses on defending occupied areas in south. In addition to backsliding on democracy and seeking to imprison political opponents, including Saakashvili, Georgian Dream has also ended the countrys previously staunchly pro-Western foreign policy. ", "The shock effect of this kind of offensive on a brittle, poorly led, and demoralized Russian military in Ukraine should not be understated," Rand Corporation'sGian Gentile and Raphael Cohen write in Foreign Policy. Russia has grappled with a substantial increase in desertions since ordering a partial mobilization in September 2022, said the British Defense Ministry, citing research from independent Russian journalists that shows 1,053 cases between January and May 2023, more than in all of 2022. And before it could obtain them, Ukraineneeded to convinceWestern allies they wouldn't be throwing good weapons at a lost cause. Russia has already suffered up to an estimated 80,000 war casualties including dead and wounded, more than the Soviet Union in a decade of war in Afghanistan, where the Soviets lost 14,500 troops and approximately 54,000 were wounded. 8.32 p.m: Ukrainian forces went on the offensive in Kherson Oblast inflicting losses to the. Russia lost hundreds of tanks and other military vehicles in the push toward Kyiv, and its elite military units the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade atHostomeland 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade in Kharkiv were decimated. 9 Jun 2022. A free Belarus combined with a truly independent, sovereign, and whole Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova would be a game-changer. ut Ashley J. Tellis, a longtime watcher of U.S.-India relations, says that Washingtons expectations of New Delhi are misplaced. Putin began by believing that the country would fall in a week; then that it would succumb to a month or two of hard fighting . The last major battle of the first year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was for Kherson, the only provincial capital Russia managed to capture before Ukraine turned the tides. Keep up with the world without stopping yours. Kyiv and Ukraine were saved through a combination of Russian President Vladimir Putin's hubris, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's unexpected pluck and wartime leadership skills "I need ammunition, not a ride,"he told the U.S whenoffered an evacuation as Kyiv appeared on the brink of capture and Ukraine's years of planning and forewarning from Western intelligence. I agree to abide by FPs comment guidelines. Download the new FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. How are other countries being impacted as a result?

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